Decisions: Importance of base rates
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Meehl, P. E. & Rosen, A. (1955). Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns and cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin, 52, 194-216.
Bokhari, E. (2013). Dangerous Predictions: Evaluating methods for and consequences for prediction dangerous behaviors. Preliminary proposal for degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.